A new method for robust route optimization in ensemble weather forecasts

This paper presents a new dynamic programming method for multi-objective route optimization of ships. The method, which is an extension of the known Dijkstra's algorithm, uses the concept of Pareto e ciency to handle multi-objective optimization and can be used with both deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts. The advantage of the presented method in combination with deterministic weather forecasts is demonstrated in comparison to Dijkstra's algorithm. The comparison between the methods (non surprisingly) shows that both nd the same minimum time route, but only the method suggested in this paper was able to nd the true minimum fuel route, with about 15% saving. Evaluation of the presented method in combination with ensemble weather forecasts show that there is an advantage when the objective of the optimization is to minimize fuel consumption. En ny metod för ruttoptimering med ensemble-väderprognoser Lukas Skoglund Jakob Kuttenkeuler Anders Rosén